The Nikkei Financial Yearbook was recently released in Japan, and with it we get the best analysis available of global camera industry sales.

SOURCE: Canon Rumors

Total camera sales for 2024 is reported as being 8.7 million units – a 6% increase over 2023, and the first year since 2017 where the industry saw a sales increase.  It sounds like great news (and it is) but here’s where you have to contextualize these numbers with historical data.  Most analysts agree that the camera industry peaked in 2010 with about 120 million units shipped worldwide (cheap point-and-shoot cameras were everywhere).  2014 is widely considered to be the last “great year” for the industry with 43 million units.  So a 6% increase to 8.7 million units sold globally isn’t great.

The good news?  Much of the sales of cameras back in the heyday came from low price, low margin consumer point and shoot cameras.  Fast forward about ten years, and the industry is primarily selling to enthusiasts, pros, and hobbyists willing to spend money (and often also spend on multiple lenses).  I’d argue the modern camera industry is leaner and more profitable per customer, even if the total revenue pie is smaller.

DSLR DYING, NOT DEAD

Canon still sold almost 800,000 DSLR units in 2024.  Many brick and mortar stores still present DSLRs as “current” technology, and they remain attractive to budget conscious buyers as well as those in emerging markets.  Canon clearly owns this market, with their sales eclipsing everyone else combined – and many would argue that this is bad for Canon and represents their dependence on “dead” technology.  I disagree.  Some percentage of those DSLR buyers will of course never convert to mirrorless cameras.  But a significant percentage will – but what system will they choose?  Canon makes it easy to adapt EF DSLR glass to the RF mirrorless camera systems – which can significantly reduce the cost of transition to mirrorless.    That’s a huge advantage for Canon.

CANON LEADS IN MIRRORLESS AS WELL

Even if you remove DSLR sales from the picutre and focus just on mirrorless camera sales, Canon still maintains a healthy sales lead over Sony.  How, Sony’s percentage of sales growth did beat Canon (7% vs. 5%).  The sales of everyone else combined don’t equal either Sony or Canon.  It’s difficult to see how, going forward, Olympus or Panasonic will survive.

TARIFFS

Many in the camera industry are fearful that US Tariffs will all but destroy the industry.  Clearly there are some weak members of the pack which may indeed be picked off – Pentax, Olympas and Panasonic are good examples.  But again, remember what the average camera customer looks like now – enthusiasts, pros, and hobbyists.  Think disposable income.  I think those in this category will not be seriously detered by ~15 increase in price from tariffs.  Here again, the bigger companies like Canon and Sony will have a clear advantage over the smaller players.

My message to the camera industry is, if you want to continue to drive sales in this product segment, innovate.  Stand out.  Take risks.  Remember who the customer is.

It’s still going to be a bumpy ride folks – hang on for dear life.